Image source: Al Jazeera

Analysts Warn Oil Could Surge Toward $150–$200 as Gulf Conflict Disrupts Supply

After US‑Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz, analysts say Brent could top $150 and even approach $200 if shipping remains halted, raising inflation and growth risks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply tightened supply because around one‑fifth to one‑quarter of seaborne oil normally moves through that route, elevating global price risk.

The international benchmark Brent crude has stayed above $100 per barrel since mid‑March and analysts from firms like Wood Mackenzie now say $150–$200 scenarios are plausible if the disruption persists.

Countries have coordinated releases from IEA emergency stockpiles to ease the shortage, but analysts estimate those reserves plus available alternatives cannot fully cover the estimated daily shortfall.

Oman and Dubai benchmark crudes have already traded at much higher levels regionally, while alternate export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline can reduce but not eliminate Hormuz dependence.

If prices climb into the $150–$200 range, the IMF warns higher oil would lift global inflation and slow growth, and persistent highs could trigger demand destruction with wider economic and supply‑chain impacts.

What position do you feel closer to?

Oil market alarmists

The strikes and Hormuz threats are a flashing red warning: the world is a few missteps away from a brutal oil shock that could tip the global economy into crisis.

Conflict de‑escalation advocates

Escalating strikes and threats to the Strait of Hormuz are reckless, risking a global energy shock that hurts ordinary people far more than it pressures governments.

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