UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025: New NDCs only modestly lower projected warming

‘Climate breakdown’: UN says world is heading for 2.8C temperature rise.

UN says world is on track for a 2.8C increase in global temperatures, far above the Paris Agreement goals.

The latest round of country climate plans ‘barely move the needle’ on future warming, the head of the UN Environment Programme has warned.

Currently, the world is on track for 2.3-2.5C of warming this century if all national emissions-cutting plans out to 2035 are implemented in full.

Projected emissions cuts by 2035 are ‘far smaller’ than the 35% reduction required for 2C and the steeper 55% cut required for a 1.5C pathway.

UNEP notes that surpassing the 1.5C warming limit is ‘increasingly near’, though it remains ‘technically possible’ to return to 1.5C by 2100.

All nations of the world had homework this year: submit new-and-improved plans to fight climate change. But the plans they handed in “have barely moved the needle.”

The newest climate-fighting plans… shave about three-tenths of a degree Celsius off a warming future… Trump administration policies… will add back a tenth of a degree.

If nations do as they promise in their plans, the planet will warm 2.3 to 2.5 C… Current policies put the world on path for 2.8 C of warming.

The numbers indicate “a lack of political will,” he said.

Ten years ago, on December 12, 2015, Laurent Fabius brought down his small leaf-shaped gavel... the first international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts" to keep it below 1.5°C.

Ten years on, has it delivered on its promises? The results remain mixed.

On the one hand, countries' commitments... have altered the projected course of warming... On the other hand, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the +1.5°C threshold is now "out of reach."

An unprecedented global mobilisation of renewable energy, forest protection and other measures is needed to steer the world off a catastrophic path.

Current carbon-cutting promises for 2030 are not being met and, even if they were, warming would still reach a disastrous 2.6C to 2.8C.

Unep said countries must collectively cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in their next pledges.

Governments must wean us off our fossil fuel addiction: showing how they will phase them out – fast and fairly.

EU environment ministers agreed to cut the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040, but only after disputes over carbon offsets.

The EU aims to reduce emissions by 66.25% to 72.5% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels, forming the basis of its new Paris Agreement target.

UN chief Guterres warned that even with new plans, warming could reach about 2.3°C, calling this “progress, but nowhere near enough.”

Analysts say the world is nearing positive economic tipping points toward a cleaner, climate‑resilient future, but change is not fast enough.

India was the global topper in absolute GHG emission increase from 2023 to 2024, adding 165 million tonnes of emissions.

India’s per capita emissions however remain the lowest among major economies, though on an upward curve.

The report confirms that India is caught in a climate justice trap… rising total emissions and non-submission of an NDC 3.0 put the country in a tight spot.

Developing countries are being asked to fund a transition they cannot afford, as international support fails to materialise at the scale required.

Earth will overshoot the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels within the next decade, UNEP said.

To stay below this threshold, the world needs to slash annual greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2035, but there’s little to no chance that will happen.

Compared with 1.5 C, warming of 2 C could more than double the share of the global population exposed to extreme heat.

New pledges from individual countries such as China this year ‘have barely moved the needle’… ‘Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal.’

Under current pledges, the predicted global temperature rise has only slightly fallen, leaving the world heading for serious climate risks.

If parties fully implemented their NDCs, global temperatures would rise by between 2.3 and 2.5°C; current policies would see a 2.8°C rise.

The size of the emissions cuts needed and the short time left means global temperatures will now exceed 1.5°C, very likely within the next decade.

Warnings of a 1.5°C overshoot must be a rallying call for action and yet 2035 climate action plans have failed to bridge the ambition gap.

Climate groups say a 2035 target above 70% is the floor of a 'credible' ambition, while the Business Council warns it could risk $150b in exports.

The Climate Change Authority has previously indicated a target of 75% would be necessary for Australia to act consistently with limiting warming to 1.5C.

The Business Council says a target above 70% could shrink the economy and send companies offshore, but its analysis omits the costs of climate inaction.

The government should legislate a target at least in that 75% band to have credibility, climate groups say, and then build on it over time.